It falls well it belongs to first cousins

The endless drama of the financial crisis you tired Will change you the ideas this weekend at the auto show. Dream, such as when your dad you are took, before the shiny chrome of the Italian, Tan Leather of the German, the burlwood to English... Stop! The dream suddenly burst like a soap bubble. The crisis is also, in the alleys of the porte de Versailles, before you. With real estate, automobile is the great first victim of the recession is preparing. One by one, global automakers are hoisted this year from their small cloud. Americans first, then the Europeans, and even Japanese. The belt-tightening time begins for a whole sector which could live his greatest restructuring since the second world war.

And no one is safe, not even the stainless German Emperors of luxury, such as Mercedes, BMW or Porsche. "This is the twilight of the gods", warn even HSBC analysts in a comprehensive study on the subject (1). According to them, the combination of environmental constraints, America's decline and the escalation of the price of raw materials will activate the high competition, while consumers are turning to smaller models and therefore less profitable. Of course we are not yet there, and builders, especially those from the top of range, leaving a miraculous decade which inflated their funds. It is therefore the time of the major strategic decisions.

Take Porsche. Excellence in innovation and execution who the most profitable automakers in the world with a margin walk between 15 and 20, or three times more that the best of general practitioners. What to do with its billion cash accumulated when suddenly the storm thunders Well to offer the largest and the most beautiful houses in the vicinity for shelter. It falls well, it belongs to first cousins. It is Volkswagen, founded pre-war by a certain Ferdinand Porsche, whose son has created post-war sports car manufacturer. It remains in family, even though they quarrelled.

But why so Stuttgart constructor, which can quietly win more than 1 billion euros per year by not only selling 100,000 cars, wants to hand over a giant of 330,000 people, complicated to manage and earning ten times less money on every car sold Because the creator of the beetle found the martingale which dream builders: marry the safety of the size with the comfort of profitability. In this field, the Wolfsburg firm is surpassed in the world by Japanese Toyota.

These two constructors are probably the better armed to face the storm ahead. A prospective study by McKinsey firm, automakers have recorded between 2004 and 2006 almost 50 billion dollars in worldwide, half of them in the United States. They believe that this year, this figure should be less than 40 billion despite growth still strong in emerging countries. Because in the meantime, North America has increased from 25 billion to $ 3 billion, a collapse of 90 of the profits on the first market in the world, a Berezina! This addition, the rise of Chinese and Indian manufacturers and more displayed disdain of consumers for midrange models that made the fortune of the Renault, PSA, and... Volkswagen.

Yet, if the latter draws, better, if it is the only European power aspire one day to be the world leader in the sector, it is because he tried and succeeded three bets that haunt all automakers in the world: those of high-end, marks and in China.

The top of range first. From a small manufacturer of car plant acquired in 1964, Volkswagen was able to make one of the most important luxury brands of the world. Audi produces now more than 1 million cars per year, i.e. almost as much as BMW or Mercedes. Patiently, from a number of very limited models, and by cleverly combining the autonomy of its subsidiary and standardization of components with the VW models, the Group has built an image and products which are sold in the world to "premium" price and strong profitability. Result, Audi represents less than one third of the turnover of Volkswagen but almost half (44) of its profits. Building on this success, mark tackles all segments of the sedan in the 4 4 through competing sport cars of Ferrari or... Porsche. A point that some analysts are now betting on an Audi that could exceed Mercedes or BMW for another decade, if he succeeds his conquest of the United States.

Marks then. After the successful Audi, Volkswagen has pushed the fires with the successive acquisitions of Spanish Seat, Skoda Czech and British Bentley. Each covering a market segment and specific geographical area. The most difficult Seat, is out of the Red last year. As Skoda, she became a base of attack of the powerful Eastern Europe markets. Its operating margin is now higher than that of Audi and the combination of the two allowed the German to save more than 35 of its sales growth this year in the countries of Eastern and especially Russia. At the time, Volkswagen is the present European manufacturer on the continent, from Scandinavia to the Spain. And most importantly, it may, as did Renault with its Logan, have a relay of growth in the field of low-cost cars that it alters the image of VW or Audi.

China finally where German is the only foreigner with General Motors to sell more than 1 million cars per year, which now allows him to design specific to this market models. Asia is after Europe second Volkswagen market with growth still exceeded the 20 this year. To serve a broad base, with so many brands, the Group launched a massive program of standardization. For many years, all models are built only four platforms. The Group has recently developed a concept of modules with non-visible key sharing. It aims to reduce it to two databases, one for small models to transverse engines and the other for large longitudinal engines (out of 4 4). It includes Porsche interest to lay its hands on such a treasure.

The sky is however not fully without clouds. Despite the protection conferred by its presence in emerging countries and all segments, it is still much too low in the United States to compete with Toyota to the top of the world ranking and move of the club of the 6 million cars produced per year to 10 million. It will open a plant in Tennessee, but it comes at a difficult time and later. He must therefore wait long. Its position in China will be more difficult to maintain under the onslaught of local competitors. His other weakness, especially in Japanese, lies in the absence of more environmentally friendly models. He will have to form alliances to go further. Finally, the current governance problems following the Porsche assault on his capital are powerful distraction of management, as seen elsewhere. It remains that Volkswagen is one of the best positioned in the world to get out of a storm which should bring more than one of its competitors.