4 billion this year while the figure was 2Claude Guéant also did not much need to insistBut I can tell you our themes for reflectionIf you reach here you are land anywhereThe fourth rule is to inquire into valuationsOther attempts Alveol Zendis have turned shortThe CGT calls a more progressive taxation and a revival of the wage bargaining read belowA syndrome who wins in turn Société GénéraleFrom the beginning of the case these deficiencies were plottedCrises often create heavy social tensionsThe photo is striking. In eighteen months, the crisis has put the same top below finance and plunged the rest of the economy into a deep recession. If it is difficult to know today what will emerge from this chaos, one thing is sure, the situation has changed and radically. The violence of the shock has already forced industrialists and financiers to re-think all or part of their economic model. It also forced them to adapt more quickly to an environment in which relations with other economic, clients, investors and also state, actors are completely upset. Inventory of dogmas that have been scanned and new trends emerging.
At the reconquest of cash and clients
Shortage of cash and disappearance of battalions of clients are two more concrete manifestations of the current crisis. This double phenomenon has made leap cash flow requirements. As he intervened at the time where many large groups had high debt ratios. Where continuous parade of companies in all sectors from raising money in the markets since the beginning of the year. After having been considered a "commodity", the cash is again, probably for a long time, a valuable asset.
However, even with a high premium, the lift is not provided. Also, to ensure their funding, the sectors most affected by the crisis, as the automobile or the Bank, must turn to the States. In this context, we understand that relations with shareholders and investors more widely have radically changed. In trading matters, it is probably the end of the dogma of the investor-King, which need to ensure cost that 15 return on investment. Evidence is, stars of rating such as General Electric have waived the repurchase of shares and their dividend. A first in the history of the industrial conglomerate.
Another rare commodity, the customer is courted and demanding, which increases the tendency to market segmentation. Identity and brand play in full, but only if the promise is fulfilled. Apple is doing rather well because the promise of innovation is at the appointment. Danone suffers less because its repositioning is clear: dairy products, water and food for babies. Segmentation can be even finer. Best example, yogurt. The market fell overall, but bio explodes. Powerful brands reassuring, particularly on strong markets such as the cosmetic (l ' Oréal, Nivea). At the other end, salvation is in the "low-cost". Hence the success of the Aldi and other Lidl in the distribution.
Live with the return of the State
The return of the State at the centre of the economic game is one of the most visible consequences of the crisis. Both lender and guarantor of social cohesion, it is able to dictate its conditions, at least the tries to the wrath of public opinion.
On financial regulation, it is to not deprive. To correct the excesses and aberrations for the years 2004-2007, the authorities are determined to establish a body of rules more binding and give the competent authorities of the expanded powers. The committed fight against tax havens is part of this project. But no pan activity and no operator should escape: rating agencies, banks, "hedge funds", products derivatives, accounting... Several initiatives have already been taken. The United Kingdom particular, buried the sacrosanct "light touch". But it is the G20 in London which is expected to draw large future developments in this area.
This pressure of States reflected also by a desire to focus on national soil. In the United States, Barack Obama plays the tax argument. In France, Nicolas Sarkozy threatens. Result in the car for example, French plant closures are no longer the order of the day. Better, some productions, such as the Clio, are relocated.
But the most striking example of the renewed influence of the State concerning remuneration. Opened with the question of the bonus of traders and ethical finance, the debate quickly expanded. It now focuses on executive compensation. In a climate of more strained. The successive announcements of the payment of bonus to traders of AIG, the granting of stock options to leaders of the Société Générale and the golden parachute granted the master who has resigned to Valeo created much excitement. For the moment, the practice is little or no delete any other than the fixed salary compensation in the only assisted companies. Remains to know if, under the pressure of opinion, States will not go further.
Bankers for model
The movement has already started. Any investment funds industry, which had thrived on the credit bubble, must restructure. This is true of the world of the LBO, who must learn to live with a rare debt and a slow economy. This is true especially of the "hedge funds", of which about one-third numbers have already disappeared in the storm. For this fledgling industry, salvation is likely the emergence of firms more diverse managing a larger asset base with less "leverage". The model already exists, it's including houses such as Citadel or Blackstone, for example.
In the Bank, it is any Bank of market activity is to rethink. Formidable profits during the bubble machines, these trades have become well without background for many of the establishments with the dislocation of markets. Redesign of mathematical models, discontinuation of some poorly controlled products, boost securitization, under the snuffer of management for own account, the sites are numerous and ongoing.
Industrialists who wondered
The industry also, economic models are reviewed thoroughly. But under the sign of the savings, reduction of fixed costs. Sometimes this leads to accelerate offshoring (prices fall in India or China), but often this will be the reverse. Are users not for political reasons but market or cost. LEGO or Nokia repatriate their production to better control the logistics. In high-tech us, it is now openly currency risks, personnel issues, intellectual property, or even instability policy to justify a repatriation home and sometimes internal activities. The time is selective, more modes and loan-to-think.
Finally, the crisis also creates opportunities for all those who have the means. It is the time to get their hands on cheap assets to increase its market share, eliminating a competitor or purchase of diversification and innovation. Indeed, some are already passed to the action. This is the case of American pharmaceutical companies, like Pfizer, or the IBM computer scientist, proposing to swallow one of its competitors.
Still some unknowns. The first relates to environmental concerns. Will lead companies to accelerate their effort a change of consumer behaviour or the decline in raw materials and economic difficulties will postpone these beautiful resolutions Obama is voluntary. In there ways Employees attitude change in depth Will relations with shareholders be different And finally, what happens if the situation worsens beyond 2010 with geopolitical risk
